Placing Bets on Michigan State and Oregon for Round 1 of the Tournament

Placing Bets on Michigan State and Oregon for Round 1 of the Tournament

When March Madness rolls around, I rely heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency metrics to guide my predictions. I’m particularly interested in how Michigan State will perform in the tournament, as they have a strong defensive efficiency ranking of ninth but rank just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency. Their upcoming matchup against Mississippi State, who is 64th in offensive efficiency, will be a key test for the Spartans. Michigan State has excelled in allowing a low shooting percentage of 44.5%, ranking 22nd among all teams.

Another factor to consider is Michigan State’s potential for regression in the tournament. They enter March Madness with the lowest luck rating according to KenPom.com. Despite ranking 19th in adjusted efficiency margin, they are viewed as an underrated team entering the tournament.

On the other hand, South Carolina is seen as a somewhat overrated six seed in the tournament. The Gamecocks are the luckiest team in the tournament and had the advantage of facing an easy out-of-conference schedule. Their adjusted efficiency margin is lower than several lower-seeded teams, suggesting that they may struggle in the tournament. South Carolina’s regular season record of 26-7 may not accurately reflect their true performance level. They could be vulnerable in their first-round matchup against 11-seed Oregon.

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