The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a tool used to gauge the direction of the economy. In October, it fell, indicating that a recession may be on the horizon according to The Conference Board. However, despite this decline, a recession has not occurred for the past 19 months. As a result, many economists have adjusted their forecasts.
Earlier this year, The Conference Board had predicted a recession by now. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board attributes the fact that we are not currently in a recession to strong consumer spending. Despite this, she still predicts a short recession early next year due to data showing no significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market.
U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics has also revised his predictions. He no longer expects a recession for this month but believes that unemployment will increase and labor conditions will begin to soften. He added that he is open to updating his forecasts if economic data continues to surprise him.
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