On Wednesday, January 14th, the INDEC will release inflation data for the month of January. According to experts, the rate is estimated to have fallen slightly from December’s 25.5%, with an increase ranging between 20% and 23%.
The City of Buenos Aires has provided some insight into the economic situation in the first month of the year. In this region, inflation increased by 21.7%, which is higher than any other period since 2012. Despite this increase, interannual growth was only 238.5%.
Economist Rocío Bisang from EcoGo predicts that inflation in January will be around 21,2%. She explains that while there were some notable increases in certain areas such as Health and Transportation, overall prices remained under control due to a slowdown in purchasing power caused by wages lagging behind prices. This led to a decrease in consumer demand for certain goods and services.
Economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina from Equilibra believes that preliminary data suggests that inflation decreased in January compared to December. He estimates it at around 22,5%. Gravina attributes this decrease to a decrease in consumer demand and lower production costs caused by a fall in commodity prices.
According to Ferreres & Asociados’ study based on over fifteen thousand GBA prices of goods and services, inflation is estimated to end close to 18% monthly with an interannual growth of 244.5%. Core inflation advanced at a monthly rate of 19.5%, marking an increase of over 268% annually. Despite this increase, core inflation was lower than expected due to government intervention aimed at controlling prices and reducing supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 restrictions.